Passengers may have to be incentivised not to travel by rail because the curtailed HS2 programme will reduce capacity, Parliament’s spending watchdog has warned.
A report from the National Audit Office (NAO) has examined how the Department for Transport (DfT) and HS2 Ltd have responded to the previous government’s decision last autumn to cancel the high speed rail line north of Birmingham.
It notes that while HS2 was originally expected to address a capacity crunch on the West Coast Main Line in the mid-2030s and will still improve capacity between London and Birmingham, ‘there will remain a capacity issue on the west coast north of Birmingham’.
The report confirms that the plan to run HS2 services north of Birmingham on existing rail may provide some time savings but plans to substitute HS2 trains with fewer seats for conventional trains will reduce capacity.
HS2 Ltd estimates that there could be a 17% reduction in capacity between Manchester and Birmingham.
While the DfT is exploring options to run longer HS2 trains north of Birmingham, this would require additional works at existing stations and HS2 trains would also likely run slower than existing trains due to current lower speed limits for non-tilting trains on the West Coast Main Line.
The report warns that the DfT will need to assess options for addressing capacity issues, which could involve, ‘for example, by incentivising people to travel at different times or to not travel by rail [which] may constrain economic growth in the region over the long term and increase environmental costs’.
Alternatively, improving or adding infrastructure ‘may be expensive and disruptive’.
The NAO stated: ‘DfT will need to balance trade-offs in developing options while considering the impact on, and operation of, the railway as a whole.’
Silviya Barrett from Campaign for Better Transport said: ‘At a time when we need to encourage more people to take the train, it beggars belief that the public might be discouraged to travel with even higher fares and fewer seats.
‘The severely curtailed HS2 project has now turned into a complete shambles that needs to be urgently addressed. For the sake of current and future generations, the Government must consider the best way to expand rail capacity and improve connectivity, from Manchester to central London as originally intended, whether high speed or not.’
The report also reveals that HS2 Ltd estimates that closing down Phase 2 will take three years to complete at a cost of up to £100m and that disposing of land and property acquired for Phase 2 will take several years.
With the rump HS2 route currently planned to start at Old Oak Common, the DfT has not yet decided on the scope, funding, or governance of its plans for ‘resetting’ Euston station and surrounding wider development, the NAO said.
The report also reveals that the DfT and HS2 Ltd have different views on how much it will cost to complete the existing programme, although both estimates are above the current funding envelope of £44.6bn (at 2019 prices), while HS2 Ltd has since identified cost pressures which will increase their estimated range further.
The DfT and HS2 Ltd are ‘ developing plans to address the issues that have led to significant cost increases’, the report adds.
However, the DfT ‘is not yet clear how it will maximise the benefits of the new scope and how it will achieve them’.
Transport secretary Louise Haigh said the Government is ‘reviewing this report’s findings, alongside the position we have inherited on HS2 and wider transport infrastructure and will set out next steps in due course’.
Register now for full access
Register just once to get unrestricted, real-time coverage of the issues and challenges facing UK transport and highways engineers.
Full website content includes the latest news, exclusive commentary from leading industry figures and detailed topical analysis of the highways, transportation, environment and place-shaping sectors.
Use the link below to register your details for full, free access.
Already a registered? Login
