Re-estimation of sea level rise forecasts has enabled the Environment Agency to conclude that a tide-excluding Thames estuary barrage is unlikely to be needed this century, but continuing uncertainty about ice melt means levels could still rise 2m by 2100.

The results of the study, commissioned by the agency, suggest the likely level of sea level rise in the Thames from oceanic thermal expansion and melting ice are most likely to be between 20 and 90cm.

The Meteorological Office Hadley Centre, Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory and Centre for Ecology and Hydrology study also scales down estimates of storm surge heights and frequency. But it doubles predicted freshwater flows for the Thames from 20% to 40% by 2080.

‘This research enables the agency to continue to plan flood management investment with confidence,’ said agency regional climate change programme manager, Tim Reeder.