Hopes for the second and third stages of East West Rail (EWR) have been all but extinguished after the transport secretary described the scheme as ‘uncertain’ when backing a nearby £1bn road improvement.
Earlier this month, Mr Shapps granted a Development Consent Order (DCO) for the A428 Black Cat to Caxton Gibbet scheme, which is currently priced at £810m to £950m and runs very close to the proposed third stage of EWR.
In his decision letter, the transport secretary wrote that ‘there will remain a need for the Proposed Development irrespective of whether the proposed East West Rail scheme is delivered’.
In further comments he referred to ‘uncertainty and lack of detail around the East West Rail project’.
The route of the Black Cat to Caxton Gibbet scheme
Ian Brown, policy director at campaign group Railfuture, said: ‘This rather looks like Mr Shapps is softening us up for a future cancellation announcement.
‘The Government has a track record of halting rail schemes halfway through - just look at the Great Western Electrification, HS2 Eastern leg or parts of Northern Powerhouse Rail. They mustn’t be allowed to do this yet again with East West Rail.’
Mr Shapps’ comments follow an interview he gave in July, when (very briefly) running for the Conservative Party Leadership. Asked what he would do to cut spending at the Department for Transport, he said: ‘What I would do as prime minister, I would cut East West Rail on what is called two and three, so the second and third tranches of it. That would save three to five billion pounds straight away.’
The entire EWR scheme is currently expected to cost around £5bn but Mr Shapps' comments suggest that the current cost could be higher.
Later that month, the Infrastructure and Projects Authority (IPA) gave the second and third stages of EWR a red rating, meaning: ‘Successful delivery of the project appears to be unachievable.’
According to the IPA, the EWR scheme, which aims to create a rail link from Oxford to Cambridge, and is a key part of the government’s ambition for the Oxford to Cambridge Arc, is currently is being delivered as a single integrated programme, structured around the phased introduction of services (Connection Stages).
Connection Stage 1 delivers services between Oxford and Bletchley/Milton Keynes and will re-construct and upgrade a partly disused railway between Bicester and Bletchley.
Connection Stage 2 predominantly upgrades existing infrastructure between Bletchley and Bedford while Connection Stage 3 involves building a new line between Bedford and Cambridge.
The East West Rail website notes that while the first stage is under construction, the second and third Stages 'are still in planning, and are dependent on final government funding and approval'.
The proposed route for the whole EWR scheme
In January 2021, Mr Shapps announced £760m for delivery of the next phase of EWR, specifically for works between Bicester and Bletchley, including the construction of a new stations at Winslow, as well as enhancements to existing stations along the route, including Bletchley.
In March 2021, Mr Shapps announced the cancellation of the Oxford-Cambridge expressway, after analysis confirmed the proposed road project was not cost-effective. The likely corridor for the expressway covered the same area as the Black Cat to Caxton Gibbet scheme.
At the time, his department stated: ‘The East West Rail scheme remains central to providing critical infrastructure within the Oxford-Cambridge Arc.’
Mr Shapps said at the time: ‘We remain committed to boosting transport links in the area, helping us to create jobs and build back better from coronavirus. We will continue to work on more targeted, localised road improvements to boost transport in the region, alongside the transformational East West Rail.’
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