The result of Greater Manchester’s referendum on congestion charging is on a knife edge, according to new figures by the Yes Campaign – with the majority in favour, but the result likely to be a No.

Ballot packs are being posted out in Greater Manchester’s Transport Innovation Fund referendum to decide whether to accept the bid.

Canvassing returns showed that 51.4% of voters who expressed a clear view were supporting the package, with 48.6% opposed.

But all is still to play for, because more than one-quarter of the electorate – 26.8% – have still to make up their minds.

But, with four districts against, a referendum along these lines would produce a No vote, because seven of the 10 need to vote yes.

Oldham is split most closely, at 50.1% Yes and 49.9% No. Rochdale is narrowly against at this stage, with only 49.4% in favour and 50.6% saying No. Bolton was most in favour, with 55.4% saying Yes, while Trafford was most opposed with a 53.8% No vote. Bury, Manchester, and Stockport all returned Yes majorities, while Salford and Tameside joined the No voters.