The largest increases in travel over the next two decades are expected to be outside urban areas, according to modelling for the Department for Transport (DfT).
The DfT has provided data for the post-2014 transport planning process for the cities and regions that suggests the biggest rises in trips will be in the East Midlands (20%), the South West (18.7%), Yorkshire & Humber (18.7%) and the East of England (18.5%). This compares to the 16% predicted for London.
Within these four regions of England the growth will be concentrated in rural, not urban areas, according to the modelling.
In the East Midlands, for example, the Lincolnshire districts of West Lindsey, North Kesteven and South Holland, Newark and Sherwood in Nottinghamshire, Harborough in Leicestershire and the majority of Northamptonshire are expected to have at least 20% more trips both to and from them, mostly by car.
Derby and Northampton are the only two urban areas in the East Midlands that the DfT’s trip model program TEMPRO calculates will have as large leaps in demand. The DfT’s national transport model, meanwhile, suggests that traffic delays will increase noticeably in England’s shires. The average delay per vehicle kilometre on all roads in East Anglia, Derbyshire, and the area around Bristol is currently less than six seconds; by 2026 it will be six to 13 seconds.
Richard Wills, Lincolnshire County Council’s director for development, said he was ‘not surprised’ to see the high demand for travel, given that ‘travel is good,’ – the title of a County Surveyors’ Society (CSS) report. In counties such as Lincolnshire, the policy response would have to be minor road improvements and extending demand-responsive bus services. But the former CSS president was ‘realistic’ about what could be achieved. ‘Money’s likely to be tight over the next few years,’ he said.
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