Brexit is upon us. David Cameron has resigned and the markets are in turmoil, with more than £100bn wiped off the FTSE 100 and the value of the pound plummeting.
For some their greatest dream has come true; for others it is a nightmare they never imagined possible. But in all honesty, who really knows what happens next?
In the immediate aftermath of a decision that will dramatically influence British politics for at least a generation, the focus for most people will be on trying to ensure some level of calm and stability.
Keep Calm
Chancellor George Osborne has staked much of his political capital on balancing austerity with boosting the economy through infrastructure investment under programmes such as the Northern Powerhouse.
With the uncertainty around what this result means for the economy, it is important that the public and infrastructure sectors and the markets see these commitments upheld and investment continue.
The infrastructure sector, due to its long timelines, is somewhat insulated from the kind of anxiety that affects financial markets. Its investment comes from steady sources like sovereign wealth funds.
In this respect, the key test in a post-Brexit UK will be whether the vote affects political decision-making. While the infrastructure sector like certainty to deliver jobs that could take five to 10 years, it also needs decisions in the first place to give those jobs a green light.
At this stage, there is no knowing what effect the vote could have on projects like HS2 or airport expansion. Like all infrastructure issues, these decisions must be based on sound economic reasoning and not be knocked off course, even by political earthquakes of this magnitude.
The ability to get goods into and out of the UK efficiently is also key to our economy. If this vote results in extra barriers to our international trade, the country will suffer.
Brexit politicians made some big promises during the campaign. In the great traditional of politics the world over, it is likely that not all of these will be met.
However the Brexit campaign’s key message that the UK could trade more easily once freed from EU regulations will be put to the test and kept under close scrutiny and the people who made these claims judged according to the outcome.
Carry on
Having announced that he will step down as prime minister, Mr Cameron said the referendum decision must be respected and started laying the ground for his successor: ‘The negotiation with the European Union will need to take place under the next prime minister, and the new prime minister takes the decision about whether to trigger Article 50, the legal process of leaving the EU.’
Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty gives the UK two years to negotiate its withdrawal. After that, if neither a deal nor an extension has been agreed, the UK automatically reverts to World Trade Organisation rules, meaning that it faces tariffs on all the goods it sells to the EU.
Bank of England governor Mark Carney made a statement to the nation, speaking almost as if he had to assume at least part of the role of prime minister for the day.
‘The people of the United Kingdom have voted to leave the European Union. Inevitably there will be a period of uncertainty and adjustment following this result. But as the prime minister said just this morning, there will be no initial change in the way our people can travel, in the way our goods can move or the way our services can be sold.’
Yet, even as he was speaking, a statement from the Freight Transport Association (FTA), claimed that coming out of EU ‘risks new costs, restrictions and bureaucratic requirements being imposed on moving goods in and out of Europe’.
Laying out some of the key issues for trade with Europe, FTA chief executive David Wells said: ‘Even though we are coming out of Europe politically, it remains our biggest export market and the supplier of a high proportion of our imports. We cannot allow new bureaucratic burdens to hamper the efficient movement of exports heading for customers and imported goods destined for British consumers.
‘The Government has two years to ensure the conditions currently imposed on other non-EU member states such as Albania and Serbia are not imposed on UK freight flows. Norway and Switzerland have better arrangements but have accepted tough conditions including the free movement of people, so this will be a difficult negotiation.
‘Britain may be out of Europe but it's not out of business and FTA will be leading the campaign on behalf of exporters and importers to keep trade procedures simple and the costs of international transport down.’
The Association of Directors of Environment, Economy, Planning and Transport (ADEPT), and the Civil Engineering Contractors Association, appealed for the need to keep on delivering in the face of uncertainty.
Unsurprisingly, UKIP leader Nigel Farage has said the country needs a ‘Brexit Government’.
Having made extraordinary voting gains - even if they did not translate to many parliamentary seats - in the last general election, Mr Farage will surely be hoping another national vote is called soon to cement his party’s position in mainstream politics.
How the Conservative Brexiters treat UKIP now is an intriguing question. UKIP have been pulling the Conservatives one way and another for several years now. Will this trend intensify or will the likes of Boris Johnson be able to overpower them back into the fringes?
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has struck a reluctant figure throughout the campaign. Changing the habit of a political lifetime and backing Remain, his campaigning felt half-hearted to many.
In response to the vote to leave, he said: ‘Article 50 needs to be invoked now. Many communities are fed up with cuts and very angry. The message is that many communities are fed up with cuts and economic dislocation.
‘Clearly there are very difficult days ahead. There will be job consequences.’
He refused to call for a general election or Mr Cameron to resign.
Do not retreat
Britain has been a key player in the European Union. That will now end but our relationship with Europe will not.
Patriotism was a key theme throughout the referendum campaign, despite the fact that it felt like a civil war at times.
Yet throughout our history, many of the moments we have been most proud of are the times we have worked with allies across Europe and beyond to help make the world a better place. An insular island with closed borders may seem like a nice place to hide from modern globalisation, but in international politics the truth is you often can’t hide for very long.
Britain has voted to leave, but our place in the world must remain.
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